Stanislava Topchii
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-5875-7571
Danylo Sudyn
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5648-0224
Olha Nahorniuk
https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8335-7135
Artem Ivanytskyi
https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6373-3757
FORECASTING TEACHER DEMAND FOR WORKFORCE PLANNING IN UKRAINE’S GENERAL SECONDARY EDUCATION SYSTEM
Full text (pdf)
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract. The article examines the current issue of teaching staff potential in Ukraine’s general secondary education system. A comprehensive model for forecasting the need for teaching staff was developed using open data sources and is described in this article, taking into account current demographic trends, existing regulatory requirements, and the current dynamics of teaching staff in Ukraine. The model is based on a detailed calculation of both the demand for teachers and their supply in the education system. Four forecasting scenarios until the 2030/2031 school year are proposed, considering different class size variants – normative and actual – and the impact of full-scale invasion as a significant social upheaval. It has been determined that under the most pessimistic scenario (taking into account social upheavals and actual class sizes), the teacher shortage could reach 366,000 persons; under the most optimistic hypothetical scenario (without considering social upheavals and with normative class sizes), the projected deficit would be 59,000 teachers. The special practical value of the developed model lies in its flexible application for forecasting and planning staffing needs in the education sector at various administrative levels – from regions to individual territorial communities. The model allows for considering specific demographic indicators, educational network characteristics, and other regional features. The research is important for shaping educational policy and making management decisions regarding teacher training. The main results and methodology can be used for further research in educational analytics and workforce planning. The study was implemented as part of a research project by NGO “Osvitoria”.
Keywords: general secondary education, teachers, forecasting, workforce potential, teaching staff shortage, educational policy.
https://doi.org/10.32987/2617-8532-2024-6-51-62
Keywords: general secondary education, teachers, forecasting, workforce potential, teaching staff shortage, educational policy.
https://doi.org/10.32987/2617-8532-2024-6-51-62
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5. Skyba, Yu., Zhabenko, O., Kovtunets, V., Otych, O., Chervona, L., Chornoivan, H., & Yaroshenko, O. (2023). Theoretical foundations and leading foreign experience of interaction between higher education and the labor market in the conditions of martial law and post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. Kyiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31874/978-617-7644-59-9-2023 [in Ukrainian].
6. Lytvynchuk, A., Gapon, V., Sharaievska, M., & Derepa, T. (2024). Pedagogical staff coverage in general secondary education institutions. Educational Analytics of Ukraine, 4(30), 5-20. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32987/2617-8532-2024-4-5-20 [in Ukrainian].
7. Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. (2022). On approval of the Strategy for the development of higher education in Ukraine for 2022-2032 (Order No. 286-р, February 23). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/286-2022-%D1%80#Text [in Ukrainian].
8. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. (2024). Government approves draft State Budget for 2025: the country’s defense will be ensured. Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/news/uriad-skhvalyv-proekt-derzhbiudzhetu-na-2025-rik-oboronu-krainy-bude-zabezpecheno [in Ukrainian].
9. Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. (2024). Report on monitoring the employment of graduates of higher and vocational pre-higher education institutions. Kyiv. Retrieved from https://mon.gov.ua/static-objects/mon/sites/1/news/2024/04/12/Zvit.z.Monitorynhu.pratsevlashtuvannya.vypusknykiv.ZV.i.FPO-12.04.2024.pdf [in Ukrainian].
10. Denysiuk, O., Tytarenko, N., & Dron, T. (2024). Educational indicators of teacher supply level during transformation processes: international and domestic contexts. Educational Analytics of Ukraine, 1(27), 60-71. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32987/2617-8532-2024-1-60-71 [in Ukrainian].
11. Mospan, N. V. (2017). Supply and demand of specialists with higher education in the labor market in the European Union. Osvitolohiya, 6, 176-180. DOI: https://doi.org/10.28925/2226-3012.2017.6.176180 [in Ukrainian].
12. De Witte, K., De Corte, V., & Gambi, L. (2023). Evidence-based solutions to teacher shortages – EENEE-NESET analytical report 1/2023. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2766/475647.
13. Di Pietro, G. (2023). Indicators for monitoring teacher shortage in the European Union – Possibilities and constraints. Publications Office of the European Union. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2760/874479.
14. UNESCO, International Task Force on Teachers for Education 2030. (2024). Global report on teachers: addressing teacher shortages and transforming the profession. Retrieved from https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000388832.
15. Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. (2020). On complete general secondary education (Act No. 463-IX, January 16). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/463-20#Text [in Ukrainian].
16. Institute of Demography and Social Research. (2023). Demographic forecast for Ukraine 2023. Kyiv. Retrieved from https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/nation_pop_proj [in Ukrainian].
17. Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. (n. d.). Educational indicators of national and local levels. Kyiv. Retrieved from https://tinyurl.com/47ncucym [in Ukrainian].
18. Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. (2021). On approval of the standard educational program for 5-9 grades of general secondary education institutions (Order No. 235, February 19). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v0235729-21#Text [in Ukrainian].
19. Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. (2018). On approval of the standard educational program for general secondary education institutions of III degree (Order No. 408, April 20). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v0408729-18#Text [in Ukrainian].
20. Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. (2022). Typical educational program for grades 1-2 of general secondary education institutions (Order No. 743-22, August 12). Retrieved from https://mon.gov.ua/static-objects/mon/sites/1/zagalna%20serednya/programy-1-4-klas/2022/08/15/Typova.osvitnya.prohrama.1-4/Typova.osvitnya.prohrama.1-2.Shyyan.pdf [in Ukrainian].
21. Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. (2022). Typical educational program for grades 3-4 of general secondary education institutions (Order No. 743-22, August 12). Retrieved from https://mon.gov.ua/static-objects/mon/sites/1/zagalna%20serednya/programy-1-4-klas/2022/08/15/Typova.osvitnya.prohrama.1-4/Typova.osvitnya.prohrama.3-4.Shyyan.pdf [in Ukrainian].
22. NGO “Osvitoria”. (2024). Teachers of Ukraine: human resources potential. Trends and modeling of needs until 2030. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.24827.32800 [in Ukrainian].